What I'm Watching: Rates, Breadth, and Semis

What I'm Watching · September 29, 2026

Three charts from the weekend Chart Room that matter for the tape this week. Not the full dump — just the tells.

The Ten-Year Cleared 5.20%

The close was 5.184% after an intraday print of 5.230%. That is the highest since June 2007. A month ago this was under 4.70%. Fifty basis points in four weeks is not a drift — it is a repricing. Durable goods held flat against a Street looking for a decline, and Michigan sentiment fell while inflation expectations went the other way. Bad mood, higher expected prices. That combination keeps a hiking path alive.

Hans's take: Nobody cares about rates until they do. The bond market is doing the tightening the Fed has not had to do yet.

Breadth Is The Tell

The McClellan Oscillator closed at -19.54 with the index at a high. Closes below the lower band tend to produce mean-reversion bounces, but the better bottoms come with positive divergence between the oscillator and the index. We do not have that. We have the index at a high and the oscillator negative — the wrong kind of divergence.

Hans's take: The index is a scoreboard. The oscillator is the box score. Read the box score.

Semis Led, But Watch The Divergence

SMH finished as the best group on the week and worked back through the summer range. The caution is underneath: RSI has been making lower highs while price makes higher ones. That is a negative divergence building. It does not mean sell. It means the move is being carried by fewer names with less thrust. Demand sits at 560 and again near 500 — those are the levels that matter if this rolls.

Hans's take: Leadership with a divergence underneath it is leadership on a clock.

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Full weekend Chart Room pack is on Google Drive if you want the rest of the board.

Trade smart, stay hedged. — Hans

This material is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.