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- The Future Is a Parabola (and hedges)
Crypto Income Trader is OPEN again! Click on this caption Wall Street’s playbook is failing you. The "Smart Money" got out in April and is only recently piling back into markets. But they are still skeptical according to many measures of sentiment and institutional fund leverage. Analysts will have no idea how to value companies with the tidal wave of productivity gains that’s about to hit. Why? Human nature. Recency bias — ie projecting yesterday's growth forward with little nuance. It's uninspired, and in this case, dangerously wrong. But we don't mind as that's what provides opportunity to those with vision. NVDA at 135 was a head scratcher to me. At $180 it's still cheap. Why? We are stepping into a world of parabolas . Company A makes the right AI moves, gains exponential advantages, and rewrites its future. Company B? Same industry, same resources… but the wrong AI calls. That difference won’t just dent profits — it could erase the company from existence. There's never been so much at stake. Moats into puddles. CEOs humbled. As I’ve been saying: our world is being altered drastically . Some will win exponentially. Others will lose catastrophically. On my public shows over the past months I’ve told you to own names like NVDA, ETHA, HOOD, NBIS, PLTR, CCJ — all of which have crushed it. I’ve also flagged shorts like FVRR, UPWK, ADBE, and CRM — all straight down since on AI's disruptive reality. Not everyone wins. No prisoners during this phase. And you either see this stuff, or you don’t. ------------------------------------------- Now, about those hedges. Today I want to talk about put spreads: When markets get choppy, many investors turn to protective puts. But there’s a lower-cost alternative worth knowing: the put spread . A put spread pairs a long put (your main protection) with a short put at a lower strike. The short put caps your downside protection, but the premium you collect helps offset the cost—sometimes significantly. Institutions like JPMorgan regularly run this structure on a percentage basis (e.g., buying a 95% put and selling an 80% put) to protect large portfolios. Check out my Free JPM Collar Series on YouTube for that. Why use put spreads? Cost efficiency – Selling the lower strike can make the hedge far cheaper than an outright put. Leverage to a move lower – Steep volatility skews make out-of-the-money puts expensive to sell, improving risk-reward and pricing. Lower decay – The short put’s faster time decay helps offset losses from the long put’s decay. When to use them: Put spreads work best for passive hedging —when you want to set protection and revisit it near expiry, not trade around market swings. If you’re trying to capture quick sell-offs, outright puts may work better since spreads are harder to monetize mid-life. This is key and why I teach students that if they want the real-deal, grab the full convexity of a straight-up put. Much better monetization potential. Risks & trade-offs: Gains are capped at the short strike. Big volatility spikes can hurt mark-to-market value due to short skew exposure (you've sold the put that the market is moving into perhaps violently). In sharp sell-offs followed by quick rebounds, you may not fully realize the spread’s maximum payout. Bottom line: If your goal is to control hedge costs and you’re comfortable with defined downside limits, put spreads can be a smart, disciplined way to protect your portfolio—without paying top dollar for insurance. On that note: I'll be doing a hedging workshop (I did manage millions in downside protect Black Swan funds for years). Put your hand up if you're interested. This could be the most important session you ever watch. I think the market will melt-up on AI fever but at some point we are going to have a "Houston we have a problem!" moment. But I won't waste my time if I don't get enough people. It's going to be a Saturday/Sunday and run around $897 ($150 discount for LEAPS and CRYPTO INCOME members). We'll go over ALL of it - pro stuff from an actual pro who has managed crash-protect funds. Stay nimble, Hans 💥 Join LEAPS Trader Core, LEAPS AI and LEAPS Explosion. We've been closing 40,75 150 and 220% winners. Almost $25,000 in wins in the past 2 weeks with only ONE contract per winner. It’s the printing press moment —and we're positioned for it. 👉 Join now and get ALL of the previous month's, today's, and tomorrow's trades. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Hans Head LEAPS Afficionado
- The AI Slow Burn is About to Turn into a Wildfire
The AI wildfire is coming! Hey Income Traders, AI is going to be one of the hardest revolutions to put your finger on in some ways - because it’s not loud and flashy like a new iPhone launch or the birth of the internet. But the scale? It’s already massive. And getting bigger by the month. Hype? ChatGPT is handling around 2.5 billion prompts per day. That’s up from 800 million in December, and 500 million not long before that. That’s not hype-that’s math, that’s mainstream, and fast. The adoption curve is steep because AI is addictive. You ask AI, it answers, it learns from you. You build, it builds. It’s not rabbit-holing into “The top-10 ways to flip a coin” (hiring a clown to do it is obviously the best one). You create, it levels you up and suggests new ways for you to add value. We’ve moved past the Training Phase-those brute-force GPU farms dream weaving fantasy into, well, just dreams. Now we’re in the AI Inference phase-and this is the part that touches us all. The dreams can become reality for individuals, companies, industries, even entire countries. Sooner rather than later. This is not hyperbole - think of what the printing press did to spread the ability to learn and improve one’s trajectory in life. Yes, that kind of impact, but on steroids as AI disseminates a billion times faster than Gutenberg’s game-changer. AI feels like a superpower, and it’s not by accident. Hyperscalers like Google and Meta are burning cash like it's the dot-com bubble all over again. Why? Because market share right now may define the next 20 years of their dominance. It’s a land grab, and users win for now – access to cheap/free AI that is getting better by the day. We’re living in a golden age for anyone who figures this out. The potential is staggering. Imagine what this could mean for emerging markets. For a kid in Nairobi with a cheap phone but no decent school-this can be a moment. But here's the paradox: for investors, this is both amazing and terrifying. AI could uplift billions- and/or crush existing business models overnight. It’s changing the rules faster than most can adapt. Stick with me. I've covered and managed AI AUM for decades - a Billion in options strategies. Ivy League. Oxford AI. Let's do this. Summer Bundle: LEAPS Core, LEAPS AI, LEAPS Explosion. Boom. www.optionswithhans.com/pricing-plans/
- Goldman Sachs: The AI Play Nobody Thinks About
I'm opening up the LEAPS Trader Super Bundle for a few hours ahead of the LIVE LEAPS Trader super special show today at 1pm ET. This is your chance to sign up and then level up. Click the word SUPERBUNDLE here: SUPERBUNDLE --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Goldman Sachs (ticker: GS) isn’t winning any workplace popularity contests right now. They’ve been quietly replacing analysts, coders, and even IPO bankers with AI-and CEO David Solomon isn’t shy about it. Just last week, Goldman rolled out a new AI coder bot, and Solomon recently admitted that 95% of IPO work is now done by AI. That’s brutal if you’re gunning for a junior banking job… but beautiful if you’re an investor. Why? I'm guessing they're not going to be extending those IPO savings to the client. Profit margin booster. Here's the deal: GS is becoming a lean, hyper-efficient deal machine .AI cuts headcount. Raises productivity. Improves margins. And the timing couldn’t be better-because the IPO winter is starting to thaw. Companies have already raised 50% more than they did last year. And when the floodgates open, Goldman will be ready with low costs, high capacity, and a dominant franchise. Now add in the macro tailwinds: Lower capital requirements from a Trump-leaning regulatory reset Eventual rate cuts (oh yes, they're coming!) = better trading and lending margins And.... corporate tax cuts. Sounds like a whole lot of things that will juice the bottom line. Think of Goldman as an out-of-the-box stock for the next phase of AI - not just because they’re selling AI to investors, but because they’re using it. Ruthlessly. And the result could be a turbocharged earnings engine right when the market starts to reward efficiency, not just hype - yeah that's also the AI Inference phase I've been screaming about since NVDA was $50 lower (LEAPS Traders have enjoyed that massive trade). 📢In LEAPS Trader our Goldman Core position is up 75.49%. Our LEAPS Explosion trade is up 73.73%. How? Because I recognized Goldman as an AI play. Just not your typical AI play. This is a new world - opportunity is all around, if you know where to look, and NOT look. Speaking of... I'm opening up the LEAPS Trader Super Bundle for a few hours ahead of the LIVE LEAPS Trader super special show today at 1pm ET. This is your chance to sign up, and then level up. Click the word SUPERBUNDLE here: SUPERBUNDLE Hans PS - Did you check out my SOXL update video? A member is up 650% on a similar trade. https://youtu.be/GKOU8EKnxuA
- Why is Option Pricing Acting Weird?
I wrote this X thread this morning and thought it was a great training for options traders. The textbooks will tell you one thing - reality from having done this for 3 decades can help you see the rest....I'm here to help so enjoy (forgive the plug). Members have been asking about stronger options pricing in the last couple of days. "if the market is going up, why are options prices rising? Doesn't the VIX go down on market rallies?" 🚀This is super important if you trade options. So let's talk: ✅I've been saying on several shows in the past few days that I don't think downside VIX plays are super great because I think VIX actually finds a floor in here. It did, even into the weekend. 📌Yes, VIX roll-down and fairly low realized volatility (low actual up and down movement) should keep certain types of those trades winning (SVXY), albeit slowly. ✅But why the options pricing pump? When an upside move gets too strong volatility markets start to take notice: meaning VIX, or the "VIX" of the stock, firms up. You can actually see it in shorter term (30 day) options pricing in tech names over the past week, it has been going up. Exactly as suggested. 30 day option pricing moving up as the market rallies strongly 📌Think of it this way: when stocks get exuberant to the upside, especially when parabolic, volatility markets start to go “WTF” because they worry about moves getting silly and maybe even stupid. ✅Options pricing thinks of this WTF risk in two ways: 📌1) more potential upside, or even possible parabolic moves. It doesn’t know where the upside will end and must start to price in that unknown movement risk. Think of MSTR last November. "Don't know, so I have to price it that way." 📌 2) the possibility of a pullback because we've run up so hard. What goes up must come down right? Not always, but volatility doesn’t know that! WTF alarms are going off and for all it knows the harder something goes up the more likely it is to retrace significantly. It's worried about both up and down, which means it HAS to price in movement. That's what's happening to a smaller extent but that could get more pronounced if this market melts-up more. Bonus round: ✅That exuberance can also manifest itself in upside call skew (farther out of the money calls) as people scramble to protect short stock positions or play for a further upside move or seek stock-replacement strategies via OTM calls. 📌 Those calls are often too cheap because of several things including supply-driven dynamics (ie call sellers/theta funds). And on that note…. ✅I've been saying for 500 SPX points that upside calls ARE too cheap. LEAPS and Trading Room members have been killing it on those trades. GS up 126% in 2 weeks, closed HOOD up 298%, up 25% on RDDT, SOXL up 223% and tons more - ALL documented and alerted to members... JULY 4 SUPER BUNDLE SALE on now: check profile. Or: https://www.optionswithhans.com/pricing-plans 📢But read on, the best stuff is next.... 💥 Sometimes when upside is priced too low you can get a normalization of upside skew and pricing on a further move up, which means you can make money several ways: 🏆Delta win from direction (call structure) 🏆Vega from general iv explosion 🏆And skew (Vega) from a steepening of the upside. Now THAT is how you come up with a blend of volatility edge and Greeks that work FOR you in a trade. Stack your Greeks! These setups can be exceptionally powerful when you find them. I gave one to LEAPS members yesterday, but I think it’s still good for Monday. It is higher risk but if my thesis plays out it could be a 10x-20x type win. That is NOT our normal quality name trade but when the moment is right…. 🎉Note my SOXL call at $17 for an example of “when the moment” is right playing out perfectly. My YouTube vid and follow-ups went over all the details. 💥Bonus Round 2: ✅Now, what happens when stocks pull back in a reasonable fashion (not a crash)? The WTF effect fades because option pricing says PHEW, we found a top, a level, a spot where buyers have had enough. Volatility can then start to price in a normalization of fear and greed dynamics. A drop to SPY 615 and you could see vol actually relax. It's counterintuitive in a way but that’s how things work when markets get a little too excited. ✍🏻If you want to learn this kind of stuff and how to actually make money and stop spinning your wheels with those 90% win-rate-but-don't-make-money strategies.... get on my Mentoring Wait List. 💡I may do another Ivy League VIP Mentoring Cohort in the next couple of months. But in the meantime, the very next best thing at a fraction of the price is the July 4 SUPER Bundle. Ridiculous value for the price. GS position up 126% in 2 weeks, closed HOOD up 298%, up 25% on RDDT, SOXL up 223% and tons more - ALL documented and alerted to members. 🦾Yes, this is your turning point. Take my hand. https://www.optionswithhans.co...
- One AI Stock I’m All-In On – and One I’m Steering Clear Of
Every week I try to highlight a name to love and a name to leave! This past week's names. My Bullish Pick: Broadcom (AVGO) Broadcom just knocked the cover off the ball—again—posting blow-out earnings and lifting its forward guidance. The catalyst? Red-hot demand for AI accelerators and custom silicon. The global race is on to build next-gen, intelligence-driven data centers at massive scale. Think of the recent GPU splurges by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who want to hand free AI access to their citizens. That’s only the tip of the iceberg. Broadcom is emerging as a cornerstone of the AI infrastructure stack, delivering ultra-high-end networking gear and bespoke chips that knit hyperscale data centers together. ****This is the important If Nvidia is the “brain and organs” of the AI data center, Broadcom is the “spine and nervous system” wiring everything up. Simple: No AVGO? No data centers. Best part? AVGO is still one of the few big-cap AI names sporting a palatable PEG ratio—valuation relative to growth matters, even in an AI frenzy. Volatile? Sure. But you get AI upside, infrastructure leverage, and solid fundamentals in one high-conviction package. My Bearish Pick: Zoom (ZM) I’m eyeing companies that cheap, ubiquitous AI is steamrolling. Zoom had its star turn during the pandemic, but that curtain closed a while back. The company’s scrambling to re-brand as an AI collaboration hub, yet giants like Microsoft Teams, Google Workspace, and Slack keep rolling out smarter, deeply integrated AI features at breakneck speed. Compared with them, Zoom feels clunky. Its core video business has stalled, customers are consolidating tools, and any moat Zoom once had has eroded into mere habit. In a landscape racing toward AI-native platforms, Zoom looks more and more like a relic of the pre-AI productivity era. Will Zoom survive the next decade? Probably—but thriving the way it did over the past five years? I’m skeptical.
- Stocks: One to Love and One to Leave
NVIDIA Corp (Ticker: NVDA) took center stage this week and by most accounts it did not disappoint on earnings. As I’ve been chirping about on various shows, I think that AI will remain the most important theme for investors over the next few years. And NVDA is the dominant player, the chief picks and shovels seller in the space. Picks and shovels refers to the mid-1800s California gold rush where the real and consistent winner was the seller of important items to those dreaming of gold. The pans, the overalls, the blankets and tents….. Did all those people find gold? Not even remotely. But the store selling them supplies sure did well. NVDA is that store. And this rush is not letting up for years. $26.14 Billion in free cash flow – music to my ears. Q2 revenue guidance was slightly below consensus due to China export constraints but strong nonetheless. New UAE and Saudi GPU demand is what investors love to hear. Gross margins, which everyone was worried about, are still healthy. Margins may come down a little, but folks are missing the point. The pie is getting massive and NVDA will be feasting on it for years. I believe that AI is in the midst of a significant pivot into inference and what I would think is much greater AI monetization across the economy. The good news for NVDA is that it is the poster child for both training and inference (having AI actually generate insight, leading to productivity gains and efficiency). The market didn’t soar today for three reasons. 1) it has had a good run and stocks aren't cheap. 2)despite NVDA numbers being good, a 50% rally off the lows may need some digestion. 3)a court block and unblock of Trump’s tariffs poses a problem... as follows: The Big Beautiful Bill – the spending that republicans are trying to push through, needs money from somewhere. Tariffs were it. The silver lining is that yields did not rise on this news. Bond stability bodes well for equities. My Top Pick: MSFT My income pick is MSFT Corp (Ticker: MSFT). This is a company that is well positioned to take advantage of all things AI. Its customers are captive to its incredibly sticky ecosystem. Who is giving up Office? No one. Co-Pilot will be injected into all corners of this incredible suite of products. Unlike Google, which faces a horrible dilemma of having to pivot away from its largest and most profitable source of revenue (ads), Microsoft is firing on all cylinders. It might even figure out a way to make Bing less annoying. It’s worth watching just for that. My Least Favorite Pick: IWM I think the Russell 2000 continues to struggle for a few more months – higher rates are no bueno for highly indebted and non-profitable companies. It has way too many of those. Until next time, Hans
- Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss....Bonds👔
The flinches happened last month. And they had to. President Trump likes a good scare, but doesn't truly want markets to crater. He says it's Main Street's turn, but you can't really help Main Street while nuking Wall Street. So things haven't gone as planned. He wanted the 10-year bond yield to drop and it has done little but rise. Bonds aren't feeling great but stocks... do? Is this a disconnect? Yes, to some extent it is. The 'smart' bond money is voting with its feet. They've been both running away from US debt and just not even showing up anymore apparently: this week's pathetic 20-year bond auction was a clear sign of that. Stocks prefer going with the "TACO" market: Trump Always Chickens Out. No disrespect, but he does and did. But with stocks giving him cover by rallying massively to near all-time highs in some cases, he may have felt emboldened to start round TWO of the process of turning the screws on countries with tariffs. Threats of 50% on the EU... Apple being told to make phones in the US, or pay 25%. He says he won't negotiate. We've heard that before. 50% on the EU will push them into recession. Won't happen. Stocks pulled themselves back from a good morning drubbing yesterday before closing only slightly lower. But how long can stocks hold up with renewed global growth threats and high yields that are also not thrilled with new and bloated budget efforts. Wasn't spending supposed to go down? What did DOGE really achieve? We're not sure yet, but Bitcoin is making new highs on fiscal largesse. Gold has started to recover as well. I am looking to fade that. Fraying US exceptionalism is back on the menu after a lovely 4 week break. And that's what stocks have to deal with. All eyes on bonds. A move higher in yields could be foreboding for stocks. My personal belief is that it doesn't last. I am looking at bullish TLT positions - I believe we will be getting cuts sooner rather than later. And AI? It's on again and good for productivity and slowing inflation. I'm sticking to my guns on that one. Timing is always tricky because markets will do market things..... Now.... there's also that little issue of Nvidia earnings this coming week. Given that AI was a big part of the comeback theme, I think this NVDA report is perhaps the most important in the past year. I think GPU demand is just fine. This next leg up in AI with inference and edge-led monetization and productivity wins will be making its way into all corners of the economy. Slowly, then very rapidly. It's going to be big. I cover my views on it and option LEAP intentions in this training: TRAINING VIDEO Hans
- The Flinches Heard Round the World.
I hosted a State of the Market show on Friday morning for around 300 attendees and I explained that bearishness was, and still is, about as strong as I've seen it in many years. Maybe decades. AAII bearishness showed more than 50% of respondents as bearish for the 11th straight week. We haven't seen that in.... well, ever . 35 years of data. This isn't a "fear of missing out" market (FOMO). It's a fear of "I'm on the sidelines and it HURTS market". That is very dangerous for bears who've erroneously decided to sit out American Exceptionalism for now. That exceptionalism isn't going anywhere. The US leads in probably 9 of the top 12 tech/innovation industries. Since before my show with Samantha 4 weeks ago I've been warning that the pain point was up. I told Brent from Spot Gamma that there was more bearishness to unwind. Imagine fund managers looking at this and thinking of how they are about to underperform by LIGHT YEARS if they don't do something about it. The exodus of foreign money may also reconsider abandoning the US at some point.... more fuel to the upside. 🌳Our Hedged Income LEAPs portfolio is up +18.5% this year versus QQQ down -7% and SPY just about even. Four of our names are either making new all-time highs or a few percent away from one. We have made a bunch on hedges and income trades to boot (remember the port was hedged on the way down). It's a special portfolio. ****I'll be opening the strategy up to new members soon (and you can learn it in the mentoring program , see below). Stay tuned for how to get involved. The Pulse Markets love clarity—and clarity showed up wearing a suit in Riyadh, shaking hands and lifting sanctions. In case you missed it, the President's speech at the Saudi-US Investment Forum wasn’t just geopolitical theater. It was a pivot point. We got: A surprise easing of tension with Syria (yes, really) An olive branch to Iran - with a “don’t push it” tone And a recommitment to stability vs conflict across the Middle East. Flinch, flinch, flinch. From markets feeling sheer terror 30 days ago to flinches doled out like candy on Halloween. Trump is suddenly everyone's friend again. Meanwhile, tech and chips took the baton and ran. Nvidia’s partnership with Saudi Arabia’s new AI venture "Humane" means hundreds of thousands of advanced GPUs will ship over five years. Oh—and the U.S. just gave the green light for Middle East exports of these high-powered chips. A previously locked door is now wide open. Flinch. The result? 🔹 Nasdaq rips higher.🔹 S&P is flirting with new all-time highs.🔹 Strategists are playing catch-up—again. Big Wall Street VIP strategists raising their S&P targets after dropping them several times. How useful. Piper Sandler says “Offense takes the field.” Wells Fargo: “Ceilings become floors.” Ed Yardeni just bumped his S&P target to 6,500 . Markets are pricing in peace, growth, and another shot at AI-driven upside. I'm a believer. I'm happy to have pivoted away from bear on semis last week. Better late than never. I added NVDA LEAPs today as well as one of my Turbo Trades in the name. What else? On my show Friday I gave out a free trade: long NVDA August calls and long GOOG August puts. Doing very well. I gave out an Uber upside June 90 call play that I closed out for a 340% gain this afternoon . No joke. 📊 EARNINGS + INFLATION = TAILWIND As I always like to say, I don't mind high-ish rates and a little inflation as long as growth is good and folks are employed. The growth scare of three weeks ago is long gone. 90% of S&P companies have reported. 78% beat on EPS. CPI came in at 2.3% —lowest since Feb. Sure, these are backwards looking to some great degree.... but these are not the metrics of a market in trouble at the margin. We’re not just climbing the wall of worry—we’re wearing jetpacks. ⚠️ WHAT TO WATCH NEXT Tariff math. Tariff rollback = lower input costs, but we’ll need to see how much demand was “pulled forward” during the trade war peak. The Q2 earnings setup. Strong Q1... but now expectations are high. If guidance gets soft, we could see rotation. Maybe. As I've been saying on shows for weeks, I think the market will look past the eventual slowdown from pull-forward - transitory. Yesterday's news. Buy that point it will be about done deals, and tax/regulatory tailwinds. Tax policy and CapEx. How stimulative will it actually be? Too hot and we get rates pressure again. 📌 FINAL THOUGHT The geopolitical tone has shifted—from aggression to accommodation. Markets are sniffing that out fast . We’ve moved from “brace for war” to “position for peace dividend.” And guess who loves peace? Margin expansion. If you’re sitting in cash, the opportunity cost just went up. Stay sharp out there. And remember—markets don't wait for clarity. They front-run it. May the income be with you, Hans PS: My 12 month VIP Pro Options Mentoring is OPEN. It's going to be like an Ivy League curriculum in trading options like a pro (I'm Ivy League so I should know how good it has to be). Just like how I learned, and what has made me tens of millions in options profits. Take my hand - reply to info@cashflowinsiders.com for more information and I'll hook you up with Mike to give you all the details. This can be YOUR turning point, if you accept it. The tuition is silly for the hundreds of thousands of dollars it could make you. Maybe millions.
- Google.... It's Time to Figure this Out OR ELSE
We did some new trades in TSLA for income, took the GS fly win for a 70% win today, holding the last third of the META for a home run (up 110% on 2/3 and sitting at 140% on the last bit, RDDT under pressure - need a little run to $115 here. Bot back 2 of the 1x3x2 fly short calls. Let's go RDDT! Took the COIN trade off for a paltry 4. 4% on risk but not bad for a week's work. And... As Scoobie would say... Ruh Roh! Google, in my view, is in big trouble. Search is 60% of revenue, high margin, and folks are moving away from it. Google needs to understand this problem and act on it soon. I've been warning about this in the community for a month (and buying put spreads), and sure enough... Apple came out and said search numbers are down for the first time in 10 years and that they will be considering other AI-related options for search on the iPhone. That might also cost Google $20 billion of service revenue from Apple, out of a total roughly $100 billion in revs for the year. Google plunged. Did I sell my bearish trades? No, I added to them. This could just be the beginning. PS - Google countered that they see growth in search queries. I'm calling BS. I break it down here: VIDEO on GOOGLE In other news... 🔹 1. Semiconductors (NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm) Good news for semis as Trump to reverse Biden’s chip export restrictions before May 15. Move seen as favoring American semiconductor exports but keeping China-specific curbs in place. Markets reacted positively: NVIDIA ended up +3%, and a little more today. Still uncertain: new rules may be more complex with 20–200 individual country deals. Key concern : US sending mixed messages on national security vs. innovation. So does national security matter or not? 🔹 2. Pharmaceutical Sector (MAHA Health Overhaul) Trump nominated Casey Means as Surgeon General, solidifying the RFK Jr.-led health agenda (Make America Healthy Again). Pharma stocks dropped amid fears of a disruptive regulatory overhaul and transparency push. Concerns around pricing power, exclusivity loss, and corruption rhetoric. Short-term pressure likely, especially for drugmakers losing patent protection. 🔹 3. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) Apple exec testified that Google searches on iPhones declined for the first time ever. Apple exploring AI-driven search partnerships (Perplexity, ChatGPT, Anthropic). Potential loss of $20B/year in search payments from Google if DOJ suit dismantles the deal. Alphabet's reliance on old “blue-link” ad model seen as vulnerable. Analysts liken this to Kodak’s innovator’s dilemma —need to disrupt themselves or risk becoming obsolete. 🔹 4. Federal Reserve and the Economy Fed kept rates unchanged but expressed concern about stagflation (high inflation + high unemployment). No bueno. Need deals. Powell emphasized uncertainty due to tariffs and shifting fiscal policy. Market reaction: yields fell on the long end, suggesting investors expect slower growth. Fed may hold rates for longer and could deliver back-end-loaded cuts if job market deteriorates sharply. 🔹 5. Disney (DIS) Surprise beat on earnings; streaming subs rose by 1.4 million to 126 million. Parks and cruise segments did well; new park announced in Abu Dhabi. Concerns remain: Streaming growth lags Netflix’s 41M annual sub gain. Streaming ad revenue down 13% sequentially. Engagement weak on originals (Bluey is top show). Key catalyst could be ESPN streaming integration and pricing bundle with Hulu and Disney+. 🔹 6. Novo Nordisk (NVO) Beat on earnings but lowered guidance due to compounded competitors undercutting its GLP-1 drug Wegovy. Company expects revenue rebound in H2 as competition phases out. Pricing drop could widen access and offset lower per-unit revenue. 🔹 7. Uber (UBER) My darling Uber missed on revenue, but autonomous vehicles touted as "greatest opportunity." Already testing 100 robotaxis in Austin. Long-term bullish narrative intact; stock remains attractive on valuation. I'm not going anywhere - I stick to my $100 target from last year. 🔹 8. Retailers (Nike, Lululemon, Capri) Stocks rose on reports of possible tariff exemptions from Trump. Optimism around softened stance on China-related apparel tariffs. Flinch! Some analysts cautious long term due to uncertain consumer environment and inflationary pressures. Have an awesome day folks! Hans CEO and Founder of the only option education that matters. www.optionswithhans.com www.crushthepremium.com
- The Squeeze into.....the Wheeze?
Hey Income Traders, As the market squeezes higher on short covering we've been plodding along with some nice wins in the community: 110% in META. We're up nicely in the Bitcoin Hedged Income book (video link in the newsletter). The Goldman fly is up around 50% - I need GS to get a little higher into the 575 area to make it sweeter. Taking a little heat on the NFLX fly but willing to wait it out (serves me right for getting even a tiny bit bearish on one of my 3 favorite stocks!). Added another SPY income trade yesterday and hoping for a non-event over the next couple of days. I suspect the pain point is still up in markets - I don't think Powell says anything to rattle them much. He has made it clear that rate cuts are not on the table until data compels him to act. With inflation sticky and GDP soft... the Fed is backed into a corner. That's not great for stocks technically but at the moment they are looking for tariff deals. The Gamma profile is not great - a 2% selloff could gather steam but without a trigger I do think we drift in this YELLOW market, which remains conducing to small and measured income trades. There is no all-clear so dry powder isn't a bad idea. Some more details into what I'm seeing: 🔌 Semiconductors: A Tale of Two Earnings AMD and Supermicro told very different stories in the latest round of AI-related earnings. AMD shares jumped after a strong beat in data center revenue and impressive confidence in forward guidance, despite a potential $800M hit from export restrictions to China. Their $7.4B sales forecast surprised many given the geopolitical headwinds but the market is just generally off the semi train right now - I've been saying for months to not force it in that sector. It's out of favor despite big tech saying they're continuing to spend. Political/trade/national security clouds are just keeping a lid on AI semi excitement. Too many questions, not enough clarity. I do think we need billions of GPUs over the next decade..... but for now respect the charts as a trader. As an investor? A taste. Also, Supermicro cut its full-year forecast, citing delays and looming tariffs. While the CEO expressed optimism for demand to rebound later this year, the market wasn’t buying it—shares dropped more than 3%. Again, tough space. 💼 The Fed: Paralysis by Uncertainty With the Fed decision coming Wednesday, the tone was one of hesitation rather than conviction. Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher noted the lack of clarity makes action nearly impossible, saying the central bank is in “wait and see” mode until more concrete tariff and economic data emerges. Michael Schumacher of Wells Fargo sees a growing likelihood of back-end loaded rate cuts—potentially as much as 100 basis points in the second half of the year. However, many on the desk warned that could be too little, too late if macro data turns sharply worse. I don't believe it will. I think the second half could be gangbusters, but for now we trade what's in front of us. 🌍 Trade Tensions & Tariff Talk President Trump’s “shopkeeper” analogy for trade deals has left investors scratching their heads. While administration officials hint at progress with several key partners, no negotiations with China have even started. Mixed messaging has only added to corporate uncertainty and investor caution. 🚗 Rivian, Palantir & the Market’s High Flyers Rivian posted a smaller-than-expected loss and two quarters of positive gross profit, unlocking $1B in VW financing. However, a delivery guidance cut spooked the street. Palantir beat expectations but tumbled after weaker international sales and an overheated valuation narrative—66x sales is tough to justify. Fundamentals don't matter until they do. Be very careful with option sales on extremely expensive stocks. 📺 Disney, Uber & Lyft on Deck Disney announced a new theme park and is up today. UBER, one of my fav stocks had mixed results - a little revenue miss and a little slow on ride demand. The good news: profits higher than expected and margins improving. These are KEY. They are in monetization mode and free cash flow is also 66% higher than last year. Trip numbers are up, gross bookings are up... but again perhaps slowing. Overall not bad. I'm holding. 📅 What’s Next: Fed Decision – Wednesday Disney, Novo Nordisk, Uber Earnings – Wednesday Lyft Earnings – Thursday Macro Watch : Jobs, GDP revisions, and ongoing tariff negotiations Stay tuned—this week could be a turning point across markets. Catch you guys later. Hans
- 👏Applause Above, Trouble Below: The Market's Hidden Risks
A very nice week for us — we monetized winners in UBER , HOOD , MSTR , CELH , META and AMZN . RDDT and COST are sitting pretty. Reddit - I love the stock and the chart, but with earnings approaching, I think it's time to take the win. At $90 , it’s a happy hold. At $120 ... let’s ring the bell. I'm still long quite a bit of stock. I also sold NFLX calls to lock in $1030 - a 50% win on the LEAPs I bought in the LEAPs Trader portfolio. I've been mentioning on various shows that we’ll continue to see an unwind of extreme bearishness — levels we haven't witnessed since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) : Daily S&P 500 ranges at GFC extremes AAII sentiment readings that were at covid lows Even Trump has flinched a few times — suggesting less of a "bull in a China shop" approach It feels like the "drive the global economy off a cliff" scenario may finally be coming off the table —especially considering how bleak things looked with 145% U.S. tariffs and China basically refusing to engage. Things were looking dire, or at least the sense of dread was palpable... and now? Not nearly as much. The bond "put" has spoken, and the Trump team backpedal happened. That said, damage is still being done - it's real and not going unnoticed by certain measures. My risk gauges, even outside of the MTI, are at VERY elevated levels. The 10 year-yield is still showing stress. The VIX futures curve is still very much stressed even after a 600-700 point rally. The US dollar hasn't exactly soared on better sentiment and Trump flinches... Credit spreads have widened and yield vol is still high. Economically, things haven't been super bad because of pull-forward purchases ahead of tariff implementation. Folks are in buy-buy mode to beat the price hikes. But at some point reality will catch up to a market that is near to being priced for perfection on any further rally. Downward earnings revisions are just starting to pick up: Employee sentiment is shaky, with real concern building: Consumers at the margin aren't catching a break either: I won't belabor the point — because a few well-placed tweets could shift the mood quickly, but the durable economic damage is not to be ignored , and it will get worse without some quick pivoting and tariff dealmaking . For now the rally has happened, but things are les-than clear. The White House says negotiations with China are happening. China says… not so much. With stocks trading around 5500 , this market is actually close to fully valued. Can it go higher? Sure, bears may scramble some more. We’ll be looking for new trades this week — but caution is still warranted . I'm trimming positions and collaring names I like. Have a great weekend, Hans
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