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Two Sectors Are Holding Up The Whole Market
Chart Room · September 20, 2026
The S&P is less than 4% off its all-time high. Breadth is at the March lows. The 10-year closed the week at 4.998% and the yield curve is five basis points of ratio from inverting.
Note From Hans
Here is the tension that defines this market. The S&P 500 is less than 4% off its all-time high. That is barely a pullback. Underneath it, the average stock has been correcting for weeks.
Two sectors are doing all the work — technology and semiconductors — with biotech, healthcare and drugs as the only other green. Everything else was red on the week.
And the bond market is why. The 10-year closed at 4.998%, right at the 2023 high, with the yield curve at 1.05 and heading toward the inversion line. Two charts below — and those two numbers are the ones that matter most this week.
The Weekly Coil Broke Out And We Are At The 2023 High
The weekly shows the five-point coil that resolved to the upside back in early 2026. The 10-year closed the week at 4.998%, up half a percent, sitting right at the 2023 highs around 5%.
Hans's take: The consensus read is that 5% holds because it held before. The chart says it pauses here rather than reverses here. Those are two very different trades and this week probably starts telling us which one is right.
The Yield Curve Is At 1.05 And Falling
This is the 10-year divided by the 2-year. It has been declining all year and now sits at 1.05. Below 1.00 the curve is inverted. We are five basis points of ratio away from that line.
Hans's take: Almost nobody is discussing this yet. If the curve inverts while the Fed is hiking into a 5% 10-year, the recession conversation starts immediately and the entire midterm-correction setup changes character.
Full Weekend Chart Pack
This is the light teaser — opening note plus the two rates charts that matter most. The full weekend Chart Room pack (Charts-Weekend-2026-09-20-links.pdf) is on Google Drive.
Trade smart, stay hedged. — Hans
This material is for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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