Turning to the Dark Side - Just in Time

Wow, that was one for the record books.  The market is still blood red on my MTI indicator.  It has been since Feb 24 with the SPX at 6000.  Yes, having the right indicator helps.  Which, by the way, is when I "Turned to the Darkside" and went bearish after being bullish for two years. (see below picture).  Pros aren't afraid to move their feet and do what needs to be done.

Unfortunately, this is not over.  Yesterday's rally was a squeeze for the ages and very short/leverage driven (see my video below for how that works).   But earnings estimates have barely budged.  They need to come down. The market is still rich for the reality that the economy is facing. 

Are we in a recession?  No.  Are asset holders still wealthy?  Absolutely.  So I don't want to overstate the damage.  I do believe that paralysis by consumers and businesses can be more or less transitory.  But they need NEWS - soon. 

Savings are good, cash in money market accounts is plentiful.  But folks aren't happy and they WILL start voting with their sell buttons.  We need more and better headlines on tariff resolution.  Or this will become a durable problem.  With earnings season upon us we may not be hearing much that is positive from CEOs.

THIS is what helped to push stocks higher yesterday.

https://youtu.be/KfVbUkyT8jE?si=jfhuDbpLR0TOXtGI&_kx=ONXv6EGiagUaYqwpEDGbxw.VJ3wEe

May the income be with you folks,

Hans

Hans turns to the Darkside in Feb. SPX just under 6000.