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Hans's Chart Room: Trouble Above, Trouble Below
OPTIONS WITH HANS · CHART ROOM
Oversold Enough to Bounce. Not Fixed Enough to Trust.
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Charts through Friday’s close
You’re reading the free Chart Room: five of this weekend’s big-picture charts. If you want to trade a market like this with me in real time, that’s what Trader63, my VIP trade room, is for. Details are at the bottom.
Note From Hans
Friday finished an ugly October for tech. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% on the day and as much as 10% from its high, and it lost about 6.5% in October, its worst month since March 2025. Intel fell 28.6%, its worst day since 1974. Sandisk lost 13.5%. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, its third straight down week.
And yet the average stock had a good month. The equal-weight S&P gained about 4% in October. Eli Lilly and AbbVie hit record highs, staples are near their highs, and health care has been on fire. That’s one of the widest gaps between the average stock and the tech giants I’ve seen.
The hedge funds have already done a lot of selling. Goldman’s prime brokerage desk counted about $20 billion of tech selling in two weeks, and funds sold all the AI stocks they had bought since the start of 2025 in five sessions. Net exposure is near a three-year low. Goldman’s basket of the most popular hedge fund stocks had its worst day since 2011 on October 22 and was down about 10% for the month.
I was worried last week, and that hasn’t changed. Last week I said 690 on QQQ is where I’d get defensive. It closed Friday at 690.49. But we’re very oversold, and when hedge fund long exposure is this far down, there isn’t much selling left. That’s how you get a nice bounce, and futures are already up a little Sunday night.
If it comes, I’ll be watching it carefully. I don’t think this AI stock bubble is done deflating. Spending is still going up, the financing keeps getting more creative, and the earnings aren’t keeping pace. A bounce that fails under QQQ’s 50-day would tell me the selling has another leg. I hope I’m wrong.
THE INDEX
The S&P Closed Below Its Lower Band
The S&P 500 fell 140.32 (−1.82%) on Friday to 7,580.07, down 0.57% on the week. It closed below its lower Bollinger Band (7,600.43) and its 100-day (7,614.99), and the low (7,527.56) went into the demand zone near 7,515 to 7,615. The 50-day is 7,697.08, and the 200-day is way down at 7,309.76.
Hans’s take: A close below the lower band is stretched, and stretched usually snaps back. Options are pricing a 2% move this week, about 7,425 to 7,750. A bounce back to the 50-day near 7,700 is the easy part. Getting back above the falling trendline from the record is the hard part.
TECH
QQQ Closed on 690
QQQ fell 24.85 (−3.47%) on Friday to 690.49, down about 2% on the week. It broke the 700-to-710 demand zone, and the low (683.45) went below the lower Bollinger Band (688.96). The 50-day is 725.00. The 200-day (679.52) sits right on top of the next demand zone, roughly 662 to 680.
Hans’s take: Above 700 is rotation. Below 690 is the correlation zone. We’re sitting on the line. A bounce back above 700 buys time. A bounce that stalls at 710 to 725 and rolls over is the one I’m worried about, and the 200-day near 680 is the last stop before it gets ugly.
SMALL CAPS
Small Caps Got Turned Back at the 50-Day
The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell 4.68 (−1.65%) on Friday to 279.33, but it still finished the week up about 1.3%. Earlier in the week it reached 285.26, right into its 50-day (284.03) and the supply zone near 285 to 288, and got turned back. It’s holding above its 200-day (277.70) and 20-day (277.41).
The October low is 269.88, inside the demand zone near 270 to 273.
Hans’s take: Small caps bounced off the October low and outperformed tech, which fits the rotation story. Holding the 200-day near 278 keeps that alive. A push back through 285 would be a real sign the bounce is broadening.
BREADTH
SPY Broke Its Trendline. Equal Weight Didn’t.
SPY fell 1.77% to 755.72 and broke below the rising trendline from the summer. The equal-weight S&P (RSP) slipped to 218.31 but is still holding the 217-to-219 breakout area, after gaining about 4% in October.
Hans’s take: Two different markets. The average stock is fine. The cap-weighted index is breaking because of a few mega-caps. Watch which one gives first.
VOLATILITY
The VIX Spiked to 24 and Closed Back Inside
The VIX jumped to 23.93 on Friday, pushing nearly to the top of the unfilled April gap (about 22 to 24), then closed at 19.42, back inside its upper Bollinger Band (20.26). On this chart, a push outside the upper band and a close back inside is a buy signal for stocks.
Hans’s take: That’s the bounce setup. The green arrows have caught most of this year’s bounces. But the Nasdaq volatility index hit its highest level since the spring on Friday. The fear is in tech, not the index.
Still in the full Chart Room: eleven more charts, including chips on the 200-day, Intel’s worst day since 1974, Alphabet, Amazon, Sandisk, Microsoft, Meta, Nasdaq 100 breadth, staples and oil, plus The Week Ahead and The Through Line.
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Hans
Charts are end-of-day through Friday, October 30, 2026. Market data sourced from StockCharts.
This material is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Options carry risk and are not suitable for every investor.
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