Google.... It's Time to Figure this Out OR ELSE

Hans Albrecht
May 8
3 min read

We did some new trades in TSLA for income, took the GS fly win for a 70% win today, holding the last third of the META for a home run (up 110% on 2/3 and sitting at 140% on the last bit, RDDT under pressure - need a little run to $115 here. Bot back 2 of the 1x3x2 fly short calls. Let's go RDDT! Took the COIN trade off for a paltry 4.4% on risk but not bad for a week's work.

And... As Scoobie would say... Ruh Roh!

Google, in my view, is in big trouble. Search is 60% of revenue, high margin, and folks are moving away from it. Google needs to understand this problem and act on it soon.

I've been warning about this in the community for a month (and buying put spreads), and sure enough... Apple came out and said search numbers are down for the first time in 10 years and that they will be considering other AI-related options for search on the iPhone. That might also cost Google $20 billion of service revenue from Apple, out of a total roughly $100 billion in revs for the year.

Google plunged. Did I sell my bearish trades? No, I added to them. This could just be the beginning.

PS - Google countered that they see growth in search queries. I'm calling BS.

I break it down here: VIDEO on GOOGLE

In other news...

🔹 1. Semiconductors (NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm)

Good news for semis as Trump to reverse Biden’s chip export restrictions before May 15.
Move seen as favoring American semiconductor exports but keeping China-specific curbs in place.
Markets reacted positively: NVIDIA ended up +3%, and a little more today.
Still uncertain: new rules may be more complex with 20–200 individual country deals.
Key concern: US sending mixed messages on national security vs. innovation. So does national security matter or not?

🔹 2. Pharmaceutical Sector (MAHA Health Overhaul)

Trump nominated Casey Means as Surgeon General, solidifying the RFK Jr.-led health agenda (Make America Healthy Again).
Pharma stocks dropped amid fears of a disruptive regulatory overhaul and transparency push.
Concerns around pricing power, exclusivity loss, and corruption rhetoric.
Short-term pressure likely, especially for drugmakers losing patent protection.

🔹 3. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL)

Apple exec testified that Google searches on iPhones declined for the first time ever.
Apple exploring AI-driven search partnerships (Perplexity, ChatGPT, Anthropic).
Potential loss of $20B/year in search payments from Google if DOJ suit dismantles the deal.
Alphabet's reliance on old “blue-link” ad model seen as vulnerable.
Analysts liken this to Kodak’s innovator’s dilemma—need to disrupt themselves or risk becoming obsolete.

🔹 4. Federal Reserve and the Economy

Fed kept rates unchanged but expressed concern about stagflation (high inflation + high unemployment). No bueno. Need deals.
Powell emphasized uncertainty due to tariffs and shifting fiscal policy.
Market reaction: yields fell on the long end, suggesting investors expect slower growth.
Fed may hold rates for longer and could deliver back-end-loaded cuts if job market deteriorates sharply.

🔹 5. Disney (DIS)

Surprise beat on earnings; streaming subs rose by 1.4 million to 126 million.
Parks and cruise segments did well; new park announced in Abu Dhabi.
Concerns remain:
- Streaming growth lags Netflix’s 41M annual sub gain.
- Streaming ad revenue down 13% sequentially.
- Engagement weak on originals (Bluey is top show).
Key catalyst could be ESPN streaming integration and pricing bundle with Hulu and Disney+.

🔹 6. Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Beat on earnings but lowered guidance due to compounded competitors undercutting its GLP-1 drug Wegovy.
Company expects revenue rebound in H2 as competition phases out.
Pricing drop could widen access and offset lower per-unit revenue.

🔹 7. Uber (UBER)

My darling Uber missed on revenue, but autonomous vehicles touted as "greatest opportunity."
Already testing 100 robotaxis in Austin.
Long-term bullish narrative intact; stock remains attractive on valuation.
I'm not going anywhere - I stick to my $100 target from last year.

🔹 8. Retailers (Nike, Lululemon, Capri)

Stocks rose on reports of possible tariff exemptions from Trump.
Optimism around softened stance on China-related apparel tariffs. Flinch!
Some analysts cautious long term due to uncertain consumer environment and inflationary pressures.

Have an awesome day folks!

Hans

CEO and Founder of the only option education that matters.